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Sunday, July 4, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
China, Oil and Lithium: Beijing to mass produce electric cars TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, LI.v, WLC.v, F, BYDDY, NSANY, DAI, RNO, GM, HEV, AONE, LUN.to
After groundbreaking Toyota move with Tesla, Daimler is pushing its way into Electric Cars mass market and in Asian market with BYD. Companies have announced a few cooperation ideas before and now it is the time is for the bold action and they are establishing a J/V. Auto Majors are buying time in Electric Car market battle field. Nissan is a clear leader on the pricing side for EV now and GM Volt will be first to market with Range Extender model alongside with BYD. Toyota has lost its time on Soft Hybrid side and Daimler was very cautious with its engagement in Electric Cars as well. Daimler has made an impressive Electric show at Frankfurt Motor Show last year, but real things were among Hybrids and Smart Electric to test the grounds with small town car. This concept model above was still at the prototype level at that time. Now BYD will get premium auto brand, safety and mass production technology and Daimler will get access to batteries, low cost production base and the market.
"Competition for Oil is heating up and aggressive move by China into Electric Cars leaves no other options for US than to follow. In order to keep power China needs gradually improve standard of living, it will bring upside pressure on labor cost. Electrification will not only provide Energy Security to China, but will significantly reduce the cost of its transportation element and provide another opportunity to stay among low cost producers. Situation is completely different to U.S. - they have capital to invest in Electric Mobility CAPEX now and rip the rewards of lower cash cost on transportation side later. We will refer you to the Economics of Electric Cars.
Recent Ash Cloud events in Europe brought a very sobering sense of the feeling to be grounded. It is amazing how many things are taking for granted. This time it is Ash Cloud - what will happen with oil above 150?
Electric Cars is the only commercially viable technology today to sustain mobility world wide with rising Oil prices. Lithium is at the heart of Green Mobility revolution - it is an industry adopted standard for batteries and billions of dollars are invested into battery technology and upcoming by the end of this year Electric Cars on a mass market scale. This Bull market is still very young - only a year or so from the beginning after the crash of 2008."
The Malay Mail:
Submitted by amir azree on Friday, May 28th, 2010
Friday, May 28th, 2010 11:04:00
ENVIRONMENT FRIENDLY: The BYD Auto on show at the company's factory in Shenzhen
FRANKFURT: Chinese auto group BYD (Build Your Dreams) and German luxury car maker Daimler announced yesterday a joint venture to mass produce an electric car in China. A new research and development group to be called Shenzhen BYD Daimler New Technology Company will get an initial investment of around US$87 million (RM286m), a Daimler statement said. "We are well-placed with our new joint venture to make the most of China's enormous potential in electromobility," Daimler chairman Dieter Zetsche said. Daimler is to bring "knowhow in vehicle architecture and security" to the venture , while BYD will contribute "its competence in batteries and propulsion systems for electric vehicles," the statement added. The world's oldest automaker and one of the youngest aim to market the vehicle under a new jointly-owned brand, joining forces to target China's fast expanding urban market. Around 16 million autos are currently sold across the country each year. Launched just seven years ago, BYD Auto now claims to be the sixth biggest car maker in China and its future plans are focused on electric or hybrid vehicles, building on the experience of its battery-making parent group. The Chinese firm, in which US billionaire Warren Buffett holds a stake of 10 per cent, has already begun to sell its electric E6 model as a taxi in the southern city of Shenzhen and aims to distribute the car in Europe next year."
EVs mass market: $10k Electric car tax break proposed TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, LI.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, NSANY, BYDDY, F, GM,
"The main open question is: will Electric Cars' adoption rate be correlated with Washing Machines' one or will it enjoy more explosive growth like Mobiles with rate of acceleration like iPods on the chart below? First, we will strike brutally and cynically (the way the Wall Street works): how can you compare washing machines and Cars? Even Electric ones? Cars are all about men, their personal social security space with a statement. How many of us discussed washing machines even the best ones? Brutal history about washing machines is that it was for the "best part" - to make her life better, it was not about status and not about statement - so it took 80 years to get to the 80% adoption rate. On a more serious note time has changed: it will not be about him all the time this time and it is not about U.S. only this time, but first back to iPod Moment."
We have another reason to believe that growth in Electric Cars penetration rate could be explosive: in all estimates government policy is crucial combined with lithium battery cost for mass adoption of EVs within next ten years.DetNews.com:
Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf buyers in select cities would get $10K incentive under Senate plan
David Shepardson / The Detroit News
Washington -- Buyers of the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf would be eligible for a $10,000 federal tax credit in some cities under a $10 billion Senate plan to boost electric vehicles.
House and Senate members on Thursday released similar plans intended to make electric vehicles more than niche models.
The House version would spend $6.6 billion, dedicating $800 million to five "deployment communities" to speed 700,000 plug-in vehicles into use and establish recharging networks. A Senate version would spend about $10 billion and grant $250 million to up to 15 communities.
The Senate version would extend the current $7,500 tax credit for 200,000 plug-in vehicles per manufacturer to 300,000. And it would boost the credit to $10,000 in those 15 communities.
That would further reduce the cost of the Volt, which will get up to 40 miles on a charge, and the fully electric Nissan Leaf, which will get up to 100 miles.
General Motors spokesman Greg Martin praised the bills.
"We appreciate Congress' foresight and interest in electric vehicles," he said. "With the Chevrolet Volt just months away from the showroom, we believe the timing is right to start working on policies that can accelerate early consumer adoption of advanced electric vehicle technologies."
Electric vehicles enjoy widespread support across the political spectrum.
"Republicans and Democrats agree that electrifying our cars and trucks is the single best way to reduce our dependence on oil," said Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., one of the sponsors.
Both bills would set aside billions more for research into batteries, research and tax credits.
The Senate bill also would create a $10 million prize for the first manufacturer of a battery that can get 500 miles on a charge.
Congressional aides have spent several months writing the bills. Members cited the recent Gulf oil spill as a factor in the urgent need to shift vehicles from oil to electric power.
Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., noted that the United States has 2 percent of the world's oil reserves but consumes 25 percent of the world's oil.
"This isn't a question of if, but when," Markey said, adding the bill would speed up the widespread use of electric vehicles. "It will drive the creation of jobs, domestic manufacturing and homegrown innovation."
The Senate bill would require that one of the 15 deployment communities be a rural area of fewer than 125,000 people and would "reflect diverse populations" and geography.
The Senate bill sets aside another $2 billion for grants and cost sharing -- local communities would have to provide 20 percent of the funding.
Communities and their business and utility partners would have to apply for inclusion.
From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20100528/AUTO01/5280349/1148/rss25#ixzz0pDCtrQjP"
Thursday, May 27, 2010
US Dollar Collapse: Reversal in Confirmation TNR.v, CZX.v, GRC.to, NGQ.v, GBN.v, ASM.v, EPZ.v, KTN.v, FVI.to, MGN, VTR.v, GDX, SLV, HUI, XAU, BTT.v,
"We will speculate on the real events behind the scene on a day of Cyber Meltdown: spectacular Dow Crash by the magnitude of 1000 point in fifteen minutes. We will develop a very strong argument in favour of Inflation and its cost based on PhD Thesis: At what point price of Oil becomes prohibitive to use Helicopters by Ben Bernanke in his open market operations. We will draw some lines on How Lithium, Gold and price of Oil are connected and what it means to be grounded. In the end we will leave you with the question: Where to invest - In Ben Bernanke, Ink Factory, Helicopters, Oil or Gold and Lithium?
Our memories from 2008 meltdown and the last deflation strike in March of last year are still too vivid for us to stay rational amid recent market panic of this week. Was it the fat finger, Cyber Meltdown or revenge of the Government Sachs, which was striped of its Olympus glamour is not so important - the most important message is the reaction of the Market itself and actions of the people in charge to follow."
Our memories from 2008 meltdown and the last deflation strike in March of last year are still too vivid for us to stay rational amid recent market panic of this week. Was it the fat finger, Cyber Meltdown or revenge of the Government Sachs, which was striped of its Olympus glamour is not so important - the most important message is the reaction of the Market itself and actions of the people in charge to follow."
We have further confirmation of US Dollar Bearish reversal with double Top in the making now. We need to clear 85.17 on the down move to make it decisive. China's confirmation of confidence in Euro was the last shoe to drop for Green Fellow levitation: as you can see below it was a very expensive exercise. Markets were again in a free fall and they better stop now at the key technical levels. Second Deflation Scare episode is almost over and price will be paid by further debasement of all currencies against the Gold, Silver and Oil amongst other commodities.
Dow is in Bullish Reversal now at the key technical level confirming the third test of the lower band of recent trend. We have a very bullish candle two days ago and yesterday the level was retested by late day selling. Today's action provides another confirmation for Deflation Scare to be subsiding and Euro panic is slowing down with news from China, declining review of SAFE Euro holdings. Fear index below is confirming its Reversal and appetite for Risk assets will be coming back with further improvement in indicators fooled by flood of liquidity provided. Euro bail out with almost 1 Trillion in USD terms and QE on the run have shadowed domestic bills for another 30 billion in Job support program and further requests for capital from bottomless Freddy and Fannie.
Risk appetite is coming back and this Summer can be really Hot in some sectors, we think that Oil starting from 70 USD now after this Second Deflation Scare on sovereign default will provide necessarily catalyst for the move above 90 USD. Our Lithium play will be enjoying next bull leg up with oil passing north of 80 USD.
"Recent Oil Spill shows the real price for Oil and leaves no doubt for us that there will be no more cheap oil: offshore drilling is costly now, it will be even more costly later. Relatively cheap Oil is in the hands of state owned companies in not so friendly to U.S. places. Oil squeeze will come from diminishing production rates and rising Inflation. The move will be even more explosive than in the Gold market - in the end only minority of people is effected by the gold price even now, Oil is the underlining of all Western Energy Diet. It is not sustainable. Emerging markets are taking more and more share of world wide production, oil producing countries are spending more at home. If you account all cost to produce, deliver and protect Oil supply to U.S. corp the price is already above 150 USD/barrel.
"Peak Oil and Lithium: Joint Operating Environment 2010
Please pay attention, this report is written by those who knows the Real Price of Oil. If you account all military needed to protect Oil supply lines and cost of wars to get more oil, price will be well above 150 USD/barrel already. Now we all have another problem: there is simply no more oil enough for all. Will future wars for oil be the only answer?"
Another "liberation" operation like Iraq, this time against Iran will break the camel's back with no return point. Competition for Oil is heating up and aggressive move by China into Electric Cars leaves no other options for US than to follow. In order to keep power China needs gradually improve standard of living, it will bring upside pressure on labor cost. Electrification will not only provide Energy Security to China, but will significantly reduce the cost of its transportation element and provide another opportunity to stay among low cost producers. Situation is completely different to U.S. - they have capital to invest in Electric Mobility CAPEX now and rip the rewards of lower cash cost on transportation side later. We will refer you to the Economics of Electric Cars.
Recent Ash Cloud events in Europe brought a very sobering sense of the feeling to be grounded. It is amazing how many things are taking for granted. This time it is Ash Cloud - what will happen with oil above 150?
Electric Cars is the only commercially viable technology today to sustain mobility world wide with rising Oil prices. Lithium is at the heart of Green Mobility revolution - it is an industry adopted standard for batteries and billions of dollars are invested into battery technology and upcoming by the end of this year Electric Cars on a mass market scale. This Bull market is still very young - only a year or so from the beginning after the crash of 2008.
We will provide you with few links to study the subject further:"
"Peak Oil and Lithium: Joint Operating Environment 2010
Please pay attention, this report is written by those who knows the Real Price of Oil. If you account all military needed to protect Oil supply lines and cost of wars to get more oil, price will be well above 150 USD/barrel already. Now we all have another problem: there is simply no more oil enough for all. Will future wars for oil be the only answer?"
Another "liberation" operation like Iraq, this time against Iran will break the camel's back with no return point. Competition for Oil is heating up and aggressive move by China into Electric Cars leaves no other options for US than to follow. In order to keep power China needs gradually improve standard of living, it will bring upside pressure on labor cost. Electrification will not only provide Energy Security to China, but will significantly reduce the cost of its transportation element and provide another opportunity to stay among low cost producers. Situation is completely different to U.S. - they have capital to invest in Electric Mobility CAPEX now and rip the rewards of lower cash cost on transportation side later. We will refer you to the Economics of Electric Cars.
Recent Ash Cloud events in Europe brought a very sobering sense of the feeling to be grounded. It is amazing how many things are taking for granted. This time it is Ash Cloud - what will happen with oil above 150?
Electric Cars is the only commercially viable technology today to sustain mobility world wide with rising Oil prices. Lithium is at the heart of Green Mobility revolution - it is an industry adopted standard for batteries and billions of dollars are invested into battery technology and upcoming by the end of this year Electric Cars on a mass market scale. This Bull market is still very young - only a year or so from the beginning after the crash of 2008.
We will provide you with few links to study the subject further:"
TNR Gold Corp. Updates Meeting Date for Approval of Spin-Out of International Lithium Corp. and Record Date TNR.v, CZX.v, NG.to, WLC.v, CLQ.v, RM.v, F
"TNR Gold Corp. Updates Meeting Date for Approval of Spin-Out of International Lithium Corp. and Record Date
ABOUT INTERNATIONAL LITHIUM CORP. / TNR GOLD CORP.
International Lithium Corp., currently a wholly-owed subsidiary of TNR, is a mineral exploration company diversified geographically and by resource type. With projects spanning the globe from Argentina, USA, Canada, and Ireland, ILC will offer investors the potential upside of rapid advancement of ILC's lithium brine projects and recognized valuation of ILC's rare metals pegmatite projects.
TNR is a diversified metals exploration company focused on identifying and exploring its existing properties and identifying new prospective projects globally. TNR has a total portfolio of 18 projects, of which 9 will be included in the proposed spin-off of International Lithium Corp.
The recent acquisition of lithium and other rare metals projects in Argentina, Canada, USA and Ireland confirms TNR and ILC's commitments to generating projects, diversifying their markets, and building shareholder value.
On behalf of the board,
Gary Schellenberg, President
Statements in this press release other than purely historical information, historical estimates should not be relied upon, including statements relating to the Company's future plans and objectives or expected results, are forward-looking statements. News release contains certain "Forward-Looking Statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions and are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties inherent in the Company's business, including risks inherent in resource exploration and development. As a result, actual results may vary materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.
CUSIP: #87260X 109
SEC 12g3-2(b): Exemption #82-4434
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release."
Press Release Source: TNR Gold Corp. On Wednesday May 26, 2010, 8:27 pm EDT
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - May 26, 2010) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News) is pleased to announce that further to its news release on April 12, 2010, we have changed our meeting date to June 22, 2010 for shareholder approval of the previously announced (April 27, 2009) spin-out of TNR's lithium and rare metal assets into its wholly-owned subsidiary, International Lithium Corp. ("ILC") under a court approved plan of arrangement. TNR shareholders of record on the date of the spin-out, planned for July 2010, will receive one share and one fully tradeable warrant of International Lithium Corp. for every 4 shares of TNR held.
The spin-out is subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange, the B.C. Supreme Court and shareholders of TNR. TNR shareholders were mailed an information circular today describing the key terms of the proposed spin-out with a planned completion within 60 days of the meeting date. The documents, including the signed Arrangement Agreement, were filed on SEDAR on May 25, 2010. We encourage all interested parties to review the Arrangement Agreement and Information Circular in their entirety on our website or SEDAR. A link for this information is as follows:
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - May 26, 2010) - TNR Gold Corp. ("TNR" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:TNR - News) is pleased to announce that further to its news release on April 12, 2010, we have changed our meeting date to June 22, 2010 for shareholder approval of the previously announced (April 27, 2009) spin-out of TNR's lithium and rare metal assets into its wholly-owned subsidiary, International Lithium Corp. ("ILC") under a court approved plan of arrangement. TNR shareholders of record on the date of the spin-out, planned for July 2010, will receive one share and one fully tradeable warrant of International Lithium Corp. for every 4 shares of TNR held.
The spin-out is subject to the approval of the TSX Venture Exchange, the B.C. Supreme Court and shareholders of TNR. TNR shareholders were mailed an information circular today describing the key terms of the proposed spin-out with a planned completion within 60 days of the meeting date. The documents, including the signed Arrangement Agreement, were filed on SEDAR on May 25, 2010. We encourage all interested parties to review the Arrangement Agreement and Information Circular in their entirety on our website or SEDAR. A link for this information is as follows:
ABOUT INTERNATIONAL LITHIUM CORP. / TNR GOLD CORP.
International Lithium Corp., currently a wholly-owed subsidiary of TNR, is a mineral exploration company diversified geographically and by resource type. With projects spanning the globe from Argentina, USA, Canada, and Ireland, ILC will offer investors the potential upside of rapid advancement of ILC's lithium brine projects and recognized valuation of ILC's rare metals pegmatite projects.
TNR is a diversified metals exploration company focused on identifying and exploring its existing properties and identifying new prospective projects globally. TNR has a total portfolio of 18 projects, of which 9 will be included in the proposed spin-off of International Lithium Corp.
The recent acquisition of lithium and other rare metals projects in Argentina, Canada, USA and Ireland confirms TNR and ILC's commitments to generating projects, diversifying their markets, and building shareholder value.
On behalf of the board,
Gary Schellenberg, President
Statements in this press release other than purely historical information, historical estimates should not be relied upon, including statements relating to the Company's future plans and objectives or expected results, are forward-looking statements. News release contains certain "Forward-Looking Statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions and are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties inherent in the Company's business, including risks inherent in resource exploration and development. As a result, actual results may vary materially from those described in the forward-looking statements.
CUSIP: #87260X 109
SEC 12g3-2(b): Exemption #82-4434
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release."
Canada Zinc Metals arranges $3-million placement CZX.v, TNR.v, BLS.to, LUN.to, QUA.to, FCX, CUU.v, DON.v, BWR.to, CS.to, BHP, RTP, RIO, IMN.to,
"CZX’s Cardiac Creek deposit (Akie property) represents one of the top 10 largest undeveloped zinc deposits on the planet. The deposit is very good grade with a very high grade section within it that could be mined first (quicker payback of capital). CZX also has a very large prospective land package – this represents a district scale opportunity in mining friendly BC, Canada. Infrastructure in the area is relatively advanced (full road access, railway, power facility, deep sea port). Neighboring property / deposits owned by big players Teck Resources and Korea Zinc. We are going to China to visit Tongling and other Chinese companies next week for further discussions on our project development"
"Tongling exercises its warrants at 20% premium to the market today (0.50CAD) - it is a very positive sign of commitment. Now Chinese company holds 17.5% in Canada Zinc Metals CZX.v, when will they bid for the whole company? Another important shareholder is Lundin Mining LUN.to With new Bailout in Europe direction is to Inflation and Commodities are the place to be. Another company we are following here is engaged in this Chinese M&A in Canada story: TNR Gold Corp. with International Lithium Corp. where CZX has a stake. Will shareholders in TNR Gold wake up one morning with new Chinese connection one day?"
With recent market meltdown Canada Zinc Metals provides another very good Entry point into this Chinese M&A play in Commodities in Canada. Markets are signaling that risk appetite could be back now and Company reports that after Chinese Tongling has exercised their warrants at 0.6CAD it was able to secure another sizable financing at that level with more than 20% premium to the market.
2010-05-27 07:44 ET - News Release
Mr. Peeyush Varshney reports
CANADA ZINC METALS ANNOUNCES NON-BROKERED PRIVATE PLACEMENT
Canada Zinc Metals Corp. has arranged a private placement of five million units at a price of 60 cents per unit for gross proceeds of up to $3-million.
Each unit will consist of one common share and one-half share purchase warrant of the company. Each whole warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one additional common share at a price of 80 cents for a period of 18 months from closing.
A finder's fee of 7 per cent will be paid on the private placement. The private placement is subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval.
The proceeds of the private placement are anticipated to be used for further exploration of the Akie Sedex zinc-lead deposit and for working capital purposes.
About the Akie and Kechika regional properties
The Akie zinc-lead property is situated within the southernmost part (Kechika trough) of the regionally extensive Paleozoic Selwyn basin, one of the most prolific sedimentary basins in the world for the occurrence of Sedex zinc-lead-silver and stratiform barite deposits.
Drilling on the Akie property by Inmet Mining Corporation during the period 1994 to 1996 and by Canada Zinc Metals since 2005 has identified a significant body of baritic zinc-lead Sedex mineralization (Cardiac Creek deposit). The deposit is hosted by variably siliceous, fine-grained clastic rocks of the Middle to Late Devonian Gunsteel formation. The company has outlined an NI 43-101-compliant inferred resource of 23.6 million tonnes grading 7.6 per cent zinc, 1.5 per cent lead and 13.0 grams per tonne silver (at a 5-per-cent zinc cut-off grade).
Two similar deposits, Cirque and Cirque South Cirque, located approximately 20 kilometres northwest of Akie and owned under a joint venture by Teck Resources and Korea Zinc, are also hosted by Gunsteel rocks and have a combined geologic inventory in excess of 50 million tonnes (not 43-101-compliant) grading approximately 10 per cent combined zinc and lead.
In addition to the Akie property, Canada Zinc Metals controls a large contiguous group of claims which consist of the Kechika regional project. These claims are underlain by geology identical to that on the Akie property (Cardiac Creek deposit) and Cirque. This project includes the 100-per-cent-owned Mt. Alcock property, which has yielded a historic drill intercept of 8.8 metres grading 9.3 per cent zinc and lead, numerous zinc-lead-barite occurrences, and several regional base metal anomalies.
All of the company's claims (77,889 hectares), with the exception of a small isolated block (2,293 hectares), are in good standing, under the provisions of the Mineral Tenure Act of British Columbia, until Dec. 8, 2018."
Lithium Batteries Powering Ten Percent of Autos by 2020 TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, LI.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, FCX, BHP, LUN.to, NG.to, NSANY,
This report continues our quest in Electric Cars adoption rate scenarios:
"As you can see above, explosive growth in some sectors can happen even when economy is slowly growing as a whole. Authors of the Deloitte study very carefully took into consideration a lot of different aspects for adoption of the new technology like Electric Cars. Have they missed something? Maybe not when we are talking about U.S. in a "normal situation", but we are living in a "New Normal" according to PIMCO. Charts above and below bring us some more dimensions for thoughts. It is growth of Oil consumption in China from 1965 and below is Rate of this Growth compare to other countries. We will bring a new factor into the growth valuation for EVs - what if there is no more Cheap Oil left and how it feels to be grounded? We will address you to the Life After Oil and other thoughts on the Peak Oil."
LithiumInvestingNews:
"Lithium Batteries Powering Ten Percent of Autos by 2020
LithiumInvestingNews:
"Lithium Batteries Powering Ten Percent of Autos by 2020
By Dave Brown – Exclusive to LithiumInvestingNews.com
The Royal Academy of Engineering has issued a report that suggests hybrid and electric cars may grab as much as 10 percent of the European automobile market by 2020. The largest impediments for this forecast appear to be cost hurdles, standardized regulations, and infrastructure investments.
The report points out that the reserve base represents sufficient lithium for a billion EV batteries, meaning that lithium shortages do not appear imminent and the diversity of possible battery chemistries suggests that a shortage of battery materials is unlikely. In addition to the lithium based batteries, which currently appear to be the industry’s state of the art technological benchmark, energy storage sources might potentially include lead, nickel, sodium, and zinc-based chemistries.
The report identifies four technical issues: availability of high energy-density batteries at a practical price, feasibility of charging vehicles, infrastructure implementation, and a ’smart grid’ that can recharge millions of electric vehicles using low-carbon electricity. The current contribution of renewable and low-carbon generation to the United Kingdom’s energy supply is one of the lowest in Europe. If the country intends to meet its renewable energy targets, a range of new low-carbon sources will be needed, including new nuclear power stations, wind farms, and tidal barrages.
Last October, a study conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP indicated that automobiles manufacturers are set to introduce 42 electric models worldwide by 2012"
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
International Lithium Corp. Spin off: management information circular posted TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, LI.v, CLQ.v, AVL.to, RES.v, QUC.v,
TNR Gold has posted on May 25th, 2010 Management Information Circular with International Lithium Corp. plan of arrangement:
Powered by Lithium: Nissan CEO Ghosn Sticks With Bullish Electric-Car Forecast TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, LI.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, NSANY, BYDDY, F,
This devise above is the basis for the Next Big Thing and we have it at every home which can afford to buy any car now.
Now we need these cars to be on the road and drive the market.
"The main open question is: will Electric Cars' adoption rate be correlated with Washing Machines' one or will it enjoy more explosive growth like Mobiles with rate of acceleration like iPods on the chart below? First, we will strike brutally and cynically (the way the Wall Street works): how can you compare washing machines and Cars? Even Electric ones? Cars are all about men, their personal social security space with a statement. How many of us discussed washing machines even the best ones? Brutal history about washing machines is that it was for the "best part" - to make her life better, it was not about status and not about statement - so it took 80 years to get to the 80% adoption rate. On a more serious note time has changed: it will not be about him all the time this time and it is not about U.S. only this time, but first back to iPod Moment."
WSJ:
Carlos Ghosn, credited with turning around ailing Nissan a decade ago, said today he’s confident sales of electric cars will account for 10% of the market by 2020. He isn’t worried by naysayers who, he says, are often car makers who simply aren’t prepared to compete in the rising electric segment.
The Nissan and Renault CEO said in a meeting with Wall Street Journal editors and reporters that the two car companies plan to roll out several electric models in the next few years. If anything, he says, that pace may still be too slow because demand for electrics is almost certain to accelerate once consumers see them in action. His biggest worry: that demand for electric vehicles “will take off faster than expected and we will be under capacity.”
So why he so bullish on electric cars when many analysts and industry watchers predict they will account for only about 2% of the market in 10 years? Part of the reason is infrastructure. Ghosn says Nissan is pursuing agreements with governments and businesses to install charging stations in parking garages, shopping areas, office parks and elsewhere so drivers won’t have to worry as much about range, a nagging disadvantage for electrics compared with gasoline-powered cars.
Ghosn also says there are charging systems in development that can cut the time it takes to recharge electric car batteries from hours to minutes. Nissan is focused on the U.S. launch in December of the Leaf, an electric sedan with a range of about 100 miles. Ghosn says the company is in contact with 130,000 “hand raisers” — people who have expressed interest in the Leaf, and 13,000 advance orders for the car. He says these numbers represent individual consumers, not government and corporate fleets."
The Nissan and Renault CEO said in a meeting with Wall Street Journal editors and reporters that the two car companies plan to roll out several electric models in the next few years. If anything, he says, that pace may still be too slow because demand for electrics is almost certain to accelerate once consumers see them in action. His biggest worry: that demand for electric vehicles “will take off faster than expected and we will be under capacity.”
So why he so bullish on electric cars when many analysts and industry watchers predict they will account for only about 2% of the market in 10 years? Part of the reason is infrastructure. Ghosn says Nissan is pursuing agreements with governments and businesses to install charging stations in parking garages, shopping areas, office parks and elsewhere so drivers won’t have to worry as much about range, a nagging disadvantage for electrics compared with gasoline-powered cars.
Ghosn also says there are charging systems in development that can cut the time it takes to recharge electric car batteries from hours to minutes. Nissan is focused on the U.S. launch in December of the Leaf, an electric sedan with a range of about 100 miles. Ghosn says the company is in contact with 130,000 “hand raisers” — people who have expressed interest in the Leaf, and 13,000 advance orders for the car. He says these numbers represent individual consumers, not government and corporate fleets."
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
China will award buyers of green cars with subsidies of up to 60,000 yuan ($8,789) each TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, LI.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC, ROC,
"We will bring a new factor into the growth valuation for EVs - what if there is no more Cheap Oil left and how it feels to be grounded? We will address you to the Life After Oil and other thoughts on the Peak Oil."
Nothing will be left to chance: China has carefully planed and now is executing its strategy in Electric Car space. Now we have another confirmation about State level shift in technology from China.
"Two charts show the dynamic of China's expansion into auto space reflecting the explosive Oil Consumption Rate of Growth above. This is why it will be not about only U.S. this time, but every move in China will affect U.S."
"Two most important points from here: Oil Consumption will go up dramatically with declining production, without major State level shift in technology China and India will not be able to bring mobility to its population without suffocating its own people and along the way they will drive prices for Oil above USD150 again."
Reuters:
Mon May 24, 2010 12:23am EDT
SHANGHAI, May 24 (Reuters) - China will award buyers of green cars with subsidies of up to 60,000 yuan ($8,789) each, the Shanghai Securities News said on Monday, as it steps up efforts to cut emissions in the world's biggest auto market.
Stocks Global Markets Cyclical Consumer Goods
The Chinese government has worked out a plan to subsidise green car buyers and will unveil details by the end of this month, the newspaper said, citing people with knowledge of the matter.
Subsidies will be based on the performance and energy-savings efficiency of the models, the paper said.
Maximum subsidies for buyers of pure electric vehicles is 60,000 yuan each, while those for plug-in hybrid and normal hybrid cars are 50,000 yuan and 3,000 yuan respectively, it said.
Beijing said in December 2009 that it will subsidise green vehicle buyers in five selected cities.
It will also expand a pilot scheme to subsidise the purchase of clean-energy vehicles for public transport fleets in 13 cities to 20 cities, it said, without giving a timetable or naming the cities. [ID:nTOE5B9033]
Chinese automakers, unscathed by a savage global downturn, are ramping up efforts to get cleaner, low-emission vehicles on the roads, counting on the green drive to propel them into the top ranks of the global auto industry.
From leading Chinese auto group SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS) to rising star Geely Automotive Holding (0175.HK), indigenous players showcased a host of new green vehicles at the 2010 Beijing autoshow in April.
Foreign automakers are also on the move. In 2011, General Motors [GM.UL] will roll out its Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid in China next year, while Nissan Motor (7201.T) will bring its electric model, Leaf, to the country. ($1=6.826 Yuan) (Reporting by Fang Yan and Jacqueline Wong)
Monday, May 24, 2010
Electric Cars' adoption rate: Washing Machines or Mobiles with iPods Squared? TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, F, BYDDY, NSANY,
CS. The time has come for Electric Cars: we are sure about it, but how fast will they be adopted, will we be able to capitalise on Green Mobility Revolution - these questions are still open. Recent research paper from Deloitte "Gaining traction. A customer view of electric vehicle mass adoption in the U.S. automotive market" has sparked a lot of discussions. We will join it with a few pictures and charts, not as good as one from Nicholas Felton below, but always providing food for thoughts. Please do not hesitate to click on charts to enlarge the images.
The main open question is: will Electric Cars' adoption rate be correlated with Washing Machines' one or will it enjoy more explosive growth like Mobiles with rate of acceleration like iPods on the chart below? First, we will strike brutally and cynically (the way the Wall Street works): how can you compare washing machines and Cars? Even Electric ones? Cars are all about men, their personal social security space with a statement. How many of us discussed washing machines even the best ones? Brutal history about washing machines is that it was for the "best part" - to make her life better, it was not about status and not about statement - so it took 80 years to get to the 80% adoption rate. On a more serious note time has changed: it will not be about him all the time this time and it is not about U.S. only this time, but first back to iPod Moment.
"Ideal market situation for the new disruptive technology to create a life time investing opportunity is when Demand for product or service is already there and you are able to deliver it in a new way, which will be more appealing to Existing consumers of this product or service. You have a dramatic shift in consumer preference and are gaining a market share in a tidal wave fashion by shifting consumers from existing providers to the new product or service place. You do not have to teach the market and prove that they need this product - you just need to prove that the new technology you are putting in place is viable to deliver the Better Experience.
We have always loved our music. Sony made a Revolution in the way we consume the music with its Walkman - we were able to take our music with us as we go. CDs made the quality of music more appealing and record companies sold us our music one more time.
Steeve Jobs made another Revolution by providing the means to consume what we exactly want with iTunes and means to Store and Retrieve All Our Music as we go in iPod. He sold us our own music one more time and we were happy to buy it. He has brought us a new Experience of how we consume the same music: it is convenient, easy, Searchable, high quality and with us - all of it. We have moved in droves to the new source of Joy."
We have always loved our music. Sony made a Revolution in the way we consume the music with its Walkman - we were able to take our music with us as we go. CDs made the quality of music more appealing and record companies sold us our music one more time.
Steeve Jobs made another Revolution by providing the means to consume what we exactly want with iTunes and means to Store and Retrieve All Our Music as we go in iPod. He sold us our own music one more time and we were happy to buy it. He has brought us a new Experience of how we consume the same music: it is convenient, easy, Searchable, high quality and with us - all of it. We have moved in droves to the new source of Joy."
"With Electric Cars all market estimations that we saw so far (apart from quote from Warren Buffett) looks like a drop in the bucket at a time. Will it be 2%, 5% or 10% claimed by Nissan in 2020? It is not a Revolution - it is like a tea party. We dare to differ and think that Electric Cars will provide to us a new Experience how we consume Mobility: energy efficient, environment friendly and cheaper with all cost accounted. And yes - they will sell us our cars one more time, this time in Electric version.
Is it bad - not at all if you will be investing in Electric Cars value chain. Even if not, we will all gain from it more than from iPods - after all we have never heard about somebody being killed by CD, but those, who still do not believe that cars pollute and kill our environment including us, can try to breath from exhaust pipe for a while to be sure.
We expect consumers to shift on a mass scale from CVs to EVs with prove that technology is viable and can provide the same utility with a Better Experience. Emotional Drive will be the driving force of this switch of consumer preferences."
Do not rush to buy every stock we are writing here about: we are biased. Our value in this very important education process is our own experience which we are ready to share. Who knew about Google short ten years ago? Chart above shows another Next Big Thing from the very recent past: Growth of Internet Advertising revenue. We did not understand the magnitude of change in the market space which Google has provided. We was not able to see the new and coming on the rubbles of previous market collapse in NASDAQ and assumed that Hype goes automatically with every Internet player claiming to take the world. Google did it. Company's valuation has collapsed in the end to our projected price of USD250 during the market crash of 2008, but the growth of the sector and Google's domination was astonishing. That is why we are so biased and you should never take anything as an investment advise on this Blog: we are in a constant search for the Next Big Thing and new Bull which will be built on the rubbles of this Economic Collapse. We have found Gold and Silver Bull before and now it is time for new exiting journey.
As you can see above, explosive growth in some sectors can happen even when economy is slowly growing as a whole. Authors of the Deloitte study very carefully took into consideration a lot of different aspects for adoption of the new technology like Electric Cars. Have they missed something? Maybe not when we are talking about U.S. in a "normal situation", but we are living in a "New Normal" according to PIMCO. Charts above and below bring us some more dimensions for thoughts. It is growth of Oil consumption in China from 1965 and below is Rate of this Growth compare to other countries. We will bring a new factor into the growth valuation for EVs - what if there is no more Cheap Oil left and how it feels to be grounded? We will address you to the Life After Oil and other thoughts on the Peak Oil.
Two charts below show the dynamic of China's expansion into auto space reflecting the explosive Oil Consumption Rate of Growth above.
This is why it will be not about only U.S. this time, but every move in China will affect U.S.
Chart below with vehicles per capita is very sobering: China and India have not even started Mobility Revolution by Western world standards.
Two most important points from here: Oil Consumption will go up dramatically with declining production, without major State level shift in technology China and India will not be able to bring mobility to its population without suffocating its own people and along the way they will drive prices for Oil above USD150 again.
Remember these faces above and these new brands coming from Asia. BYD has attracted Warren Buffet and has produced China's wealthiest man already. More to come.
"America needs to catch up with the rest of the world in Electric Space. U.S. is years away from recent advance in lithium batteries and electric cars compare to Japan and China. Nissan spent 5.5 billion dollars and 16 years developing electric cars based on lithium ion technology. Competition is heating on and it is very positive to see DOE supporting at least production of Electric Cars in U.S. developed in another countries. Green Leaf growing in the Homeland is better than nothing even if it is from a foreign tree.
Our main take from U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu Video :
"Price of Lithium batteries is in access of 1000 USD/kWh at the moment, with mass production it will drop to 300-400 USD/kWh ( S. GM is aiming now for 450 USD/kWH in a near term) and with recent technological advance we can talk about 100 USD/kWh as possibility."
As we have wrote before, lithium battery price of USD 25o per kWh will make production of Electric Cars cheaper than a comparable CV - you do not need automatic transmission as part of your power drive.
This is why we are calling it Green Mobility Revolution. Make a step back and look at the big picture. With electricity being the most convenient form of energy known to us, stable pricing and ready availability from existing source infrastructure - we have a transformation technology in place: you can store energy on board of your vehicle Produced Somewhere Else. It means that that energy could be produced thousand miles away using mass scale and most economical production method including Nuclear power, Hydro power generation, Geothermal, Wind, Solar and other renewable sources of energy available today.
Our conventional vehicles did not move far away from steam powered trains. They still carry fuel and power plant on board with very inefficient conversion cycle technology from fuel to mechanical power. Power source is restricted to mobility application and it is very expensive, it can not use economy of scale or different sources including renewables (think about tidal wave generator on board) and you are caring exhaust pipe with you everywhere you drive.
It is time to start thinking about Electric Cars as means to transform our Energy Diet nation wide - you do not need to have power generation plant on board (which will be always expensive and inefficient compare to Industrial Scale version even of the same technology) - you need just most effective storage system and power delivery system: Lithium ion batteries and Electric Powertrain.
This is where you can start thinking with us: that all current estimations about Electric Cars adoption rate could be blown away once technology will be proven to be viable in a mass sale applications."
This stuff above in the bag will be at the heart of this Green Mobility Revolution. It is Lithium and auto industry has adopted the standard battery chemistry based on Lithium for EVs. There is enough Lithium in the world to let Electric Cars go for another one hundred years and it could become the Next Big Thing if our projection on Electric Cars explosive growth will be proven actually taking place within next years. Chart below is Byron Capital Lithium Index with the most leveraged Lithium exploration and development plays to the Electric Cars adoption rate and EV market development as a whole.
EV World:
By Bill Moore
When Deloitte Consulting came out with their study, Gaining Traction: A Customer View of Electric Vehicle Mass Adoption in the U.S. Automotive Market earlier this month, the media made much of the fact that electric cars were likely, in Deloitte's view, at least, to be adopted by consumers at about the same rate as washing machines through the Twentieth Century, taking some 80 years to reach just over 80% of households [See the chart they used above]. Do a Google search for "Deloitte study electric cars" to see all the various media reports emphasizing the slow growth of the market for electric cars. For example, "Major Study Predicts Electric Car Adoption Will be Low," reads the headline on GM-Volt.com, pretty much mirroring the view of the likes of Reuters, Economic Times, Fast Company, Wired, etc. Even here on EV World, we dutifully posted links to these reports, as well.
But then I got to thinking about Nicholas Felton's chart, especially the plots for washing machines, stoves, clothes dryers and refrigerators, and it suddenly occurred to me what I was seeing. Can you spot it? Let me help you. Take a look at the graph below tracking the rise of women in the workplace.
Notice any similarity? The rate of adoption of labor saving appliances for the wife would appear to track fairly closely with their entering the workplace. The more hours they worked away from home, the less time they had to engage in the very tedious and time consuming job of washing and drying clothes. Which also raises a second issue of why it took so long for the clothes washer to reach the 80 percent level: lack of innovation.
If you look at photographs and advertisements of washing machines from the 1930's, they are little changed from machines first advertised in 1908. The only real difference was the introduction of the electric motor to run the pump, turn the agitator, and cycle the wringer or mangle, as it was also called. In fact, it would take half a century to see the wringer disappear off the washing machine, replaced by a mechanically-timed spin dry cycle, as manufacturers finally figured out that women didn't want to spend all day squeezing their wet laundry between rubber rollers... twice: once to remove the dirty soap water, and a second time to remove the rinse water.
Not only was the pace of innovation painfully slow when it came to women's labor saving devices, but middle American appliance manufacturers hadn't yet caught on to the idea of planned obsolescence introduced into the auto industry in the 1950s. There are households across America that are still using 1950-era wringer washers 60 years later, some in the name of the new "green frugality" movement. You can even buy working replicas for $899. Those Maytags, Amanas, Hotpoints and Speed Queens were built to last and last, unlike computers, cellphones and television sets, where the pace of technological innovation and fickle fashion makes such devices obsolete in 18 months or less, fostering continual churn in the market and even more innovation.
But back to the central question of the rate at which electric cars will be adopted by society, the rate of consumer acceptance chart above also seems to suggest that the pace of adoption is also driven by gender. As a general rule, men have not, historically, at least, done the laundry or cooked the meals. We -- and I include myself in this -- do tend to take a far keener interest in technology, be it automotive or electronics. Look at the pace of purchases of radios, reaching 50% of the market in less than 10 years. It took just about the same period of time for color television to reach the same 50% of households. It took even less for the Internet.
I contend that an electric car is far closer to a piece of electronics than a kitchen appliance; and, as such, it will appeal to men far more than to women, initially. If I look at the percentage of men reading EV World versus women, it is something around 75 % male versus 25% female; and in our early days it was more like 90-10, which was a function of who was using the Internet back in the late 1990s. Still, this suggests that it will be men who will be shopping for that first electric car; and that means that the decision making process won't be driven by logic, but by emotion.
Much as we'd like to view ourselves as logical, hard-nosed, count-the-cost creatures, men aren't really Vulcans; and neither are women, for that matter. There's a ying-yang quality in our reasoning powers that is strongly influenced by emotions that include aesthetics (styling and creature comforts) and the perception of risk (vehicle performance). The classic example is the Harley Davidson motorcycle and the "logic" that goes into buying what is probably a far cry from a necessity for most owners. It's a grown boy's toy, plain and simple, and one that is used few times year. Of the more than 6.5 million motorcycles registered in America, less than 10% are driven seasonally, and just over 4% are used on a daily basis as a primary form of transportation. The rest sit for that occasional weekend romp, usually by aging baby boomers (1) with discretionary income to spend.
Take a look at this next chart. It accompanied the original Nicholas Felton chart from the New York Times that Deloitte uses in their study. It depicts American household spending by category and income level. After housing, transportation is the highest consumption item on the graph for all three income groups.
"Where does the plug-in and battery-powered car fit into this picture?" I asked myself. "Is the electric car more washing machine or computer?" Here is my hastily jotted list bullet points. The electric car is:
Novel and new
Has perceived economic value with lower daily operating costs than its gasoline competition
Like buying a Harley Davidson motorcycle, it's appeal goes beyond the pure, cold logic of "when will it pay-for-itself" ROI (return-on-investment).
Offers 'beyond petroleum' guilt-free performance and fun
With these four alone, I could easily make the case to the Mrs. -- who is likely to be much more logical and pragmatic about this decision than I would be -- that we really do need that Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt or CODA or Think or... take your pick.
Of course, there are also the imponderables: range, charging time, battery life, cold weather performance, but each of these can be "reasoned/rationalized" to my satisfaction. I don't drive more than 30 miles a day. My car sits in the garage 23 hours a day. Prius NiMH batteries are going strong at 100,000 miles, so why not lithium? I can pre-warm the batteries overnight or drive my back-up gas-banger on really cold days.
Even cost is becoming less of an issue with the introduction of the Nissan Leaf at US$32,850 prior to federal and state incentives.
Yes, being guy who is as subject to our own form of "irrationality" when it comes to "big boy toy" purchases, as our female counterparts are to theirs, I can come up with as many arguments in favor of buying that grid-connected electric car (GEV), as those against. How about you, brother?
Taking this perspective into consideration, it is my view that the electric-drive vehicle -- in all its guises -- isn't going to take half a century to reach 80% of the market. Depending on the rate of impact of a whole series of social, economic, political, technological, military and environmental drivers, it could come a lot more quickly than we might assume. That, by the way, also happens to be the perspective of the International Energy Agency, as depicted in the final graph below.
So, washing machine or cellphone? Which do you think it'll be?
This isn't my first look at the parallels between washing machines and electric cars. Check out Of Front-loading Washing Machines and the Aptera 2e.
(1) According to a new study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI), the number of motorcyclists 45 and older killed in crashes nearly quadrupled from 2001 to 2005 (the last year for which data is available). Crashes among this age group increased more than 60 percent during that time, compared with a 6 percent drop in the number of crashes for younger motorcycle riders."
When Deloitte Consulting came out with their study, Gaining Traction: A Customer View of Electric Vehicle Mass Adoption in the U.S. Automotive Market earlier this month, the media made much of the fact that electric cars were likely, in Deloitte's view, at least, to be adopted by consumers at about the same rate as washing machines through the Twentieth Century, taking some 80 years to reach just over 80% of households [See the chart they used above]. Do a Google search for "Deloitte study electric cars" to see all the various media reports emphasizing the slow growth of the market for electric cars. For example, "Major Study Predicts Electric Car Adoption Will be Low," reads the headline on GM-Volt.com, pretty much mirroring the view of the likes of Reuters, Economic Times, Fast Company, Wired, etc. Even here on EV World, we dutifully posted links to these reports, as well.
But then I got to thinking about Nicholas Felton's chart, especially the plots for washing machines, stoves, clothes dryers and refrigerators, and it suddenly occurred to me what I was seeing. Can you spot it? Let me help you. Take a look at the graph below tracking the rise of women in the workplace.
Notice any similarity? The rate of adoption of labor saving appliances for the wife would appear to track fairly closely with their entering the workplace. The more hours they worked away from home, the less time they had to engage in the very tedious and time consuming job of washing and drying clothes. Which also raises a second issue of why it took so long for the clothes washer to reach the 80 percent level: lack of innovation.
If you look at photographs and advertisements of washing machines from the 1930's, they are little changed from machines first advertised in 1908. The only real difference was the introduction of the electric motor to run the pump, turn the agitator, and cycle the wringer or mangle, as it was also called. In fact, it would take half a century to see the wringer disappear off the washing machine, replaced by a mechanically-timed spin dry cycle, as manufacturers finally figured out that women didn't want to spend all day squeezing their wet laundry between rubber rollers... twice: once to remove the dirty soap water, and a second time to remove the rinse water.
Not only was the pace of innovation painfully slow when it came to women's labor saving devices, but middle American appliance manufacturers hadn't yet caught on to the idea of planned obsolescence introduced into the auto industry in the 1950s. There are households across America that are still using 1950-era wringer washers 60 years later, some in the name of the new "green frugality" movement. You can even buy working replicas for $899. Those Maytags, Amanas, Hotpoints and Speed Queens were built to last and last, unlike computers, cellphones and television sets, where the pace of technological innovation and fickle fashion makes such devices obsolete in 18 months or less, fostering continual churn in the market and even more innovation.
But back to the central question of the rate at which electric cars will be adopted by society, the rate of consumer acceptance chart above also seems to suggest that the pace of adoption is also driven by gender. As a general rule, men have not, historically, at least, done the laundry or cooked the meals. We -- and I include myself in this -- do tend to take a far keener interest in technology, be it automotive or electronics. Look at the pace of purchases of radios, reaching 50% of the market in less than 10 years. It took just about the same period of time for color television to reach the same 50% of households. It took even less for the Internet.
I contend that an electric car is far closer to a piece of electronics than a kitchen appliance; and, as such, it will appeal to men far more than to women, initially. If I look at the percentage of men reading EV World versus women, it is something around 75 % male versus 25% female; and in our early days it was more like 90-10, which was a function of who was using the Internet back in the late 1990s. Still, this suggests that it will be men who will be shopping for that first electric car; and that means that the decision making process won't be driven by logic, but by emotion.
Much as we'd like to view ourselves as logical, hard-nosed, count-the-cost creatures, men aren't really Vulcans; and neither are women, for that matter. There's a ying-yang quality in our reasoning powers that is strongly influenced by emotions that include aesthetics (styling and creature comforts) and the perception of risk (vehicle performance). The classic example is the Harley Davidson motorcycle and the "logic" that goes into buying what is probably a far cry from a necessity for most owners. It's a grown boy's toy, plain and simple, and one that is used few times year. Of the more than 6.5 million motorcycles registered in America, less than 10% are driven seasonally, and just over 4% are used on a daily basis as a primary form of transportation. The rest sit for that occasional weekend romp, usually by aging baby boomers (1) with discretionary income to spend.
Take a look at this next chart. It accompanied the original Nicholas Felton chart from the New York Times that Deloitte uses in their study. It depicts American household spending by category and income level. After housing, transportation is the highest consumption item on the graph for all three income groups.
"Where does the plug-in and battery-powered car fit into this picture?" I asked myself. "Is the electric car more washing machine or computer?" Here is my hastily jotted list bullet points. The electric car is:
Novel and new
Has perceived economic value with lower daily operating costs than its gasoline competition
Like buying a Harley Davidson motorcycle, it's appeal goes beyond the pure, cold logic of "when will it pay-for-itself" ROI (return-on-investment).
Offers 'beyond petroleum' guilt-free performance and fun
With these four alone, I could easily make the case to the Mrs. -- who is likely to be much more logical and pragmatic about this decision than I would be -- that we really do need that Nissan Leaf or Chevy Volt or CODA or Think or... take your pick.
Of course, there are also the imponderables: range, charging time, battery life, cold weather performance, but each of these can be "reasoned/rationalized" to my satisfaction. I don't drive more than 30 miles a day. My car sits in the garage 23 hours a day. Prius NiMH batteries are going strong at 100,000 miles, so why not lithium? I can pre-warm the batteries overnight or drive my back-up gas-banger on really cold days.
Even cost is becoming less of an issue with the introduction of the Nissan Leaf at US$32,850 prior to federal and state incentives.
Yes, being guy who is as subject to our own form of "irrationality" when it comes to "big boy toy" purchases, as our female counterparts are to theirs, I can come up with as many arguments in favor of buying that grid-connected electric car (GEV), as those against. How about you, brother?
Taking this perspective into consideration, it is my view that the electric-drive vehicle -- in all its guises -- isn't going to take half a century to reach 80% of the market. Depending on the rate of impact of a whole series of social, economic, political, technological, military and environmental drivers, it could come a lot more quickly than we might assume. That, by the way, also happens to be the perspective of the International Energy Agency, as depicted in the final graph below.
So, washing machine or cellphone? Which do you think it'll be?
This isn't my first look at the parallels between washing machines and electric cars. Check out Of Front-loading Washing Machines and the Aptera 2e.
(1) According to a new study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI), the number of motorcyclists 45 and older killed in crashes nearly quadrupled from 2001 to 2005 (the last year for which data is available). Crashes among this age group increased more than 60 percent during that time, compared with a 6 percent drop in the number of crashes for younger motorcycle riders."
Please visit the original article at the headline link for more graphics.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Toyota and Tesla: games around Lithium: Why the Japanese automaker is looking for an electric boost. TNR.v, CZX.v, RM.v, LMR.v, WLC.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC
"It is a very significant development not only for Tesla, but for Toyota and EV mass market evolution. Tesla has gained more credibility with this move and it is all about Tesla S model mass production. Roadster was making headlines, but not sales numbers. Tesla S promised to be a 5 seater with more than 200 miles range and price tag of 50000USD. It will not be able to compete with Nissan Leaf at USD25000 after federal tax rebate, but it is the move into right direction. Now apart from Mercedes, Tesla can count on Toyota's expertise in safety, mass production and cost control. Toyota way into EV space is not straight forward, it is the case when actions are more significant than words and sometimes words could be misleading. Toyota announced last September that after years of research they do not see Lithium batteries as a commercial choice for Hybrids at the moment. Lithium juniors crashed with the news hitting the wires. After that surprisingly Toyota place on display a few advanced models of Hybrids and plug-ins with lithium batteries an Frankfurt Motor show 2009. Toyota engineers at the show were talking about clear advantage for use of Lithium batteries. Later 2009 Toyota trading house took a stake in upcoming Lithium developer Orocobre Resources with lithium brine salar in Argentina. Now they have quickly moved into Tesla buying the time and expertise on lithium battery side and controlling systems. It has happen just weeks after the usual bashing of EVs and that Hybrids are the only way in the future."
Now we have another EV in the picture - it is Toyota's concept Plug-In EV with lithium battery. Lithium based battery chemistry is an industry adopted standard now in EV space and Nissan Leaf is the price leader with its price as low as 20000USD after federal and state rebates in some markets. Nissan spent more than 16 years and 5 billion dollars developing with NEC lithium batteries and Electric Cars - Toyota was concentrating on soft hybrids with small batteries and has lost advantage of first mover into the hybrid space. Tesla could bring the battle back close to the US market - where place will be for Tesla S and Toyota EV following the market leaders (as we think) Nissan Leaf and GM Volt.
Forbes:
It's tough to say which company will benefit most from the new partnership between Japanese automotive giant Toyota Motor and American electric car upstart Tesla Motors.
In a surprise announcement the companies said they will cooperate on the development and production of electric vehicles and components, and that Toyota will buy a $50 million stake in Tesla when it goes public in the near future. Tesla also said it had purchased Toyota's former NUMMI factory near Silicon Valley.
The partnership undoubtedly boosts the credibility of Palo Alto, Calif.-based Tesla. Despite lots of hype about its battery-powered sports cars, many people have doubted whether Tesla has the capital or know-how to become anything more than a niche manufacturer. "Toyota must have conducted substantial due diligence before making this investment," said John O'Dell, senior editor of GreenCarAdvisor.com.
Toyota, meanwhile, gets to tap into Tesla's "coolness" factor--a quality sorely missing from the maker of stodgy Camrys and Corollas--and recapture some of its entrepreneurial legacy. "Toyota would like to learn from the challenging spirit, quick decision-making, and flexibility that Tesla has," said President Akio Toyoda, who has said one reason for Toyota's current quality woes is that the company has grown too big and sluggish. "By partnering with Tesla, my hope is that all Toyota employees will recall that 'venture business spirit,' and take on the challenges of the future."
Odd as it might seem for the world's leading manufacturer of hybrid vehicles, Toyota also has some catching up to do when it comes to fully electric cars. Both Nissan and General Motors plan to introduce plug-in EVs in the U.S. before the end of this year. Toyota, meanwhile, intends to offer a short-range, electric commuter car and a plug-in Prius hybrid in the U.S. in 2012. By teaming up with Tesla, whose current roadster can go 245 miles on a single charge, Toyota said it will have more options. Like other large automakers, Toyota is required in places like California to offer some vehicles that emit little or no tailpipe pollution.
Perhaps even more important, however, is how the Tesla deal helps Toyota politically.
In a surprise announcement the companies said they will cooperate on the development and production of electric vehicles and components, and that Toyota will buy a $50 million stake in Tesla when it goes public in the near future. Tesla also said it had purchased Toyota's former NUMMI factory near Silicon Valley.
The partnership undoubtedly boosts the credibility of Palo Alto, Calif.-based Tesla. Despite lots of hype about its battery-powered sports cars, many people have doubted whether Tesla has the capital or know-how to become anything more than a niche manufacturer. "Toyota must have conducted substantial due diligence before making this investment," said John O'Dell, senior editor of GreenCarAdvisor.com.
Toyota, meanwhile, gets to tap into Tesla's "coolness" factor--a quality sorely missing from the maker of stodgy Camrys and Corollas--and recapture some of its entrepreneurial legacy. "Toyota would like to learn from the challenging spirit, quick decision-making, and flexibility that Tesla has," said President Akio Toyoda, who has said one reason for Toyota's current quality woes is that the company has grown too big and sluggish. "By partnering with Tesla, my hope is that all Toyota employees will recall that 'venture business spirit,' and take on the challenges of the future."
Odd as it might seem for the world's leading manufacturer of hybrid vehicles, Toyota also has some catching up to do when it comes to fully electric cars. Both Nissan and General Motors plan to introduce plug-in EVs in the U.S. before the end of this year. Toyota, meanwhile, intends to offer a short-range, electric commuter car and a plug-in Prius hybrid in the U.S. in 2012. By teaming up with Tesla, whose current roadster can go 245 miles on a single charge, Toyota said it will have more options. Like other large automakers, Toyota is required in places like California to offer some vehicles that emit little or no tailpipe pollution.
Perhaps even more important, however, is how the Tesla deal helps Toyota politically.
First, it softens the public relations blow Toyota suffered in California when it closed the NUMMI factory last month. The plant used to be a joint venture between Toyota and General Motors, but Toyota got stuck with it after GM filed for bankruptcy and a judge terminated their contract. Toyota said it could no longer afford to operate the factory alone.
"Toyota obviously made a wise political move there," said Sean McAlinden, chief economist for the Center for Automotive Research.
United Auto Workers President Ronald Gettelfinger applauded the decision to revive NUMMI, which once employed nearly 5,000 people. "Our union's hope is that this venture will give first hiring preference to former NUMMI employees who are already trained and highly skilled," said Gettelfinger.
"Toyota obviously made a wise political move there," said Sean McAlinden, chief economist for the Center for Automotive Research.
United Auto Workers President Ronald Gettelfinger applauded the decision to revive NUMMI, which once employed nearly 5,000 people. "Our union's hope is that this venture will give first hiring preference to former NUMMI employees who are already trained and highly skilled," said Gettelfinger.
Of course, a few thousand electric cars won't make up for the 400,000 Toyotas and Pontiacs that used to come out of that factory annually under the GM-Toyota joint venture, but it's a start. "The new Tesla factory will give us plenty of room to grow," said Chief Executive Elon Musk, without indicating whether UAW workers would get first dibs on newly created jobs.
Musk said Tesla will ramp up to about 1,000 jobs when it starts production in 2012.
Toyota's deal with Tesla ought to play well in Washington, too, where the carmaker is under siege for its handling of sudden acceleration complaints.
U.S. policy makers have been pushing electric-car technology as a way to reduce the nation's oil use and its dependence on foreign energy sources. By giving a hand up to an American maker of EVs, Toyota is furthering that objective."
Musk said Tesla will ramp up to about 1,000 jobs when it starts production in 2012.
Toyota's deal with Tesla ought to play well in Washington, too, where the carmaker is under siege for its handling of sudden acceleration complaints.
U.S. policy makers have been pushing electric-car technology as a way to reduce the nation's oil use and its dependence on foreign energy sources. By giving a hand up to an American maker of EVs, Toyota is furthering that objective."
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